NOT LONG ago the rich world was braced for a costly battle with inflation. Today it can seem as if the war has been won bloodlessly. In most rich countries annual core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has fallen from peaks of 5-8% to a more tolerable 3-5%. In defiance of pessi­mistic economists, there has been no accompanying economic slump. Growth varies from booming (America) to respectable (Australia, Canada, Japan) to tepid (Britain, the euro area), but nowhere has it collapsed. In contrast to the disinflation of the 1980s, unemployment has stayed low. Has the world economy enjoyed salvation without sacrifice? Sadly, the answer is no; high inflation has left scars.

不久之前，富裕世界曾经准备好与通货膨胀进行一场昂贵的战斗。如今，看起来似乎这场战争已经在没有流血的情况下取得了胜利。在大多数富裕国家，不计算波动的食品和能源价格的年度核心通胀已经从5-8%的峰值下降到了一个更可接受的3-5%。与悲观的经济学家相反，没有出现伴随的经济衰退。增长从蓬勃发展（美国）到可观（澳大利亚、加拿大、日本）再到温和（英国、欧元区）不等，但没有任何地方出现了崩溃。与20世纪80年代的紧缩相比，失业率保持在较低水平。世界经济是否在不牺牲的情况下获得了拯救？不幸的是，答案是否定的；高通胀留下了伤痕。

Before the covid-19 pandemic, the rich world enjoyed decades without any serious inflation problems. After ruthless monetary tightening in the 1980s, followed by a movement towards inde­pendent central banks targeting inflation, price surges seemed as outdated as shoulder pads. As firms and workers came to assume that inflation would stay low, they kept prices and wages in check. Their expectations there­ by proved self-fulfilling.

在新冠疫情爆发之前，富裕世界经历了几十年没有严重通货膨胀问题。在20世纪80年代进行了无情的货币紧缩之后，紧随其后的是向着独立央行以通胀为目标的运动，价格激增似乎就像过时的肩垫一样。随着企业和工人开始认为通货膨胀会保持低位，他们控制了价格和工资。他们的期望由此成为了自我实现。

Unfortunately the idea that inflation was dead also lodged in the minds of central bankers. When prices started to rise in 2021 they were horribly slow to respond. Eventually they lifted interest rates much higher than they had initially thought nec­essary. Today faster-than-expected disinflation has allowed them a sigh of relief. Last month Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that interest-rate cuts were not far away-although he seemed more guarded in a speech on April 3rd. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, has cele­brated an "increasingly positive story". But central bankers' problems are not over. Inflation re­mains above their targets. In Europe it is likely to fall further, but only because the economy is weak. In America getting inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal probably cannot be achieved at the current rate of economic growth, which is fuelled in part by an unsustainable government deficit.

不幸的是，通货膨胀已经死亡的观念也深深植根于央行家的头脑中。当价格开始在2021年上涨时，他们的反应非常迟缓。最终，他们将利率提高到比最初认为的要高得多的水平。如今，超出预期的紧缩让他们松了一口气。上个月，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，降息离我们不远了，尽管他在4月3日的讲话中显得更加谨慎。英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利赞扬了一个“越来越积极的故事”。但央行家的问题并没有解决。通货膨胀仍高于他们的目标。在欧洲，通货膨胀可能会进一步下降，但这只是因为经济疲软。在美国，要将通货膨胀率降至美联储的2%目标，可能无法以当前经济增长的速度实现，其中一部分是由不可持续的政府赤字所推动。

Most important, the public is more attuned to the danger of inflation than it was before the pandemic. Some surveys show an uptick in long-run inflation expectations. Financial markets in America and Britain are charging a bit more for long-term inflation protection than they did. Predictions for future infla­tion have become more dispersed, meaning more people doubt whether inflation targets will be hit. In other words, now that high inflation is no longer a distant memory, the credibil­ity of central banks looks fragile.

更重要的是，公众对通货膨胀的危险比疫情爆发前更加敏感。一些调查显示，长期通货膨胀预期有所上升。美国和英国的金融市场为长期通货膨胀保护收取的费用比之前高了一些。对未来通货膨胀的预测变得更加分散，意味着更多的人怀疑是否会实现通货膨胀目标。换句话说，现在高通胀不再是遥远记忆的时候，央行的信誉显得脆弱。

It could shatter if another shock like the pandemic strikes. Inflation expectations rising definitively would cause inflation to persist until central banks brought about a painful slowdown. That was just about avoided this time, but fur­ther testing episodes are likely. Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, climate change and gov­ernments' fondness for fiscal stimulus will all make inflation more volatile than it was in the sleepy decades after the 1980s. The risk is two-sided: Europe, especially, still faces the danger of inflation fall­ing below the 2% target, owing to a weak economy.

如果像疫情这样的另一个冲击发生，央行家的信誉可能会破裂。通货膨胀预期明显上升将导致通货膨胀持续，直到央行实施痛苦的经济放缓。这次刚刚避免了这种情况，但进一步测试的事件很可能发生。地缘政治紧张局势、贸易战、气候变化和政府对财政刺激的偏爱都将使通货膨胀比20世纪80年代后的沉寂更加波动。风险是双向的：欧洲尤其是仍面临通货膨胀低于2%目标的风险，原因是经济疲软。

The combination of volatile inflation and diminished cred­ibility means that the rich world's policymakers must be agile. They will need to adjust interest rates more quickly and to a greater extent when inflation fluctuates-and tolerate the re­sulting economic volatility. In so doing they will come to look a bit like their colleagues in emerging markets. Without as long a record of low inflation behind them, central banks in Brazil, Chile and Poland all raised interest rates sharply in 2021; all have since cut them as inflation has fallen. Move fast and forcefully: this is the rule book that the likes of Mr Powell and Mr Bailey will have to follow.

波动的通货膨胀与信誉受损的结合意味着富裕世界的决策者必须灵活。当通货膨胀波动时，他们将需要更快地调整利率，并且程度更大，并容忍由此产生的经济波动。这样做将使他们看起来有点像新兴市场的同行。由于没有像之前那样长时间的低通货膨胀记录，巴西、智利和波兰等国的央行在2021年都大幅提高了利率；随着通货膨胀下降，它们都已经开始降息。迅速而有力地行动：这是鲍威尔先生和贝利先生等人必须遵循的规则书。